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Indexes of Doppler radar echo for rainfall enhancement in summer and autumn in Zhejiang Province
ZHANG Lei, SONG Zhe, XU Cheng, HUANG Xuanxuan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (5): 888-896.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0888
Abstract463)   HTML3)    PDF(pc) (16341KB)(848)       Save

Based on rainfall enhancement operation records in Zhejiang Province and Doppler radar data, sounding data and hourly rainfall observations from automatic stations as well as MICAPS weather chart from June to November of 2018-2020, the indexes of Doppler radar echo for rainfall enhancement in summer and autumn in Zhejiang Province were researched with the inverse method after evaluation of rainfall enhancement effect in order to guide cloud seeding operation more scientific and reasonable. The results show that the shear line, upper trough and typhoon are the most favorable weather systems for artificial rainfall enhancement in Zhejiang Province, accounting for 28.6%, 21.4% and 21.4%, respectively. According to radar echo and precipitation characteristics, cloud types can be divided into stratiform cloud, cumuliform cloud, mixed cloud giving priority to stratiform cloud and mixed cloud giving priority to cumuliform cloud. Mixed cloud is the most common type for rainfall enhancement, accounting for up to 82.5%. The number of samples with obvious rainfall enhancement effect is small, only accounting for 13.4%. Radar echo intensity, radar echo top, vertical integrated liquid water and thickness of negative temperature layer are valid criteria for operating conditions. The indexes of Doppler radar echo for rainfall enhancement are different in different seasons and for different cloud types. So the indexes of Doppler radar echo and the discriminant equation of operating conditions should be established separately. Unreasonable operation was the main reason why we failed to get positive effect of rainfall enhancement, which accounted for 49.2% of all the samples. Many other reasons leading to failure of rainfall enhancement included but not limited to inappropriate time, position and object. The indexes of Doppler radar echo for rainfall enhancement established in this article are scientific and easy-to-use. These studies have evident significance to command cloud seeding operation.

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Effect Verification of Multimodel Area Rainfall Forecast in Dadu River Basin in Flood Season in 2019
SONG Wenwen, GUO Jie, DAN Jia, XU Cheng, LONG Keji
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 678-686.  
Abstract312)      PDF(pc) (2652KB)(1432)       Save
 Based on observed data from meteorological stations, gridded data and forecast data of intelligent grid, SWCWARMS (southwest center WRF ADAS realtime modeling system) and ECMWF, inspection evaluation was performed for the area rainfall forecast effect from June to October in 2019 in the Dadu River basin by using mean absolute deviation, fuzzy grading, accuracy and threat score. The inspection results of mean absolute deviation, accuracy and fuzzy grading indicated that the forecast effect of intelligent grid forecast was overall superior to the others. With the rising level of precipitation, the threat score and false alarm rate decreased, the miss alarm rate increased, and the forecast ability reduced. The ECMWF model was better in forecast of light and middle rainfall, and the intelligent grid model was better in forecast of heavy rainfall and rainstorm. The rainfall levels of forecast results from three models were bigger than observed value for light and middle rainfall, and were smaller than observed value for heavy rainfall and rainstorm. The area rainfall forecast results for typical rainfall process from each model showed that the result of SWCWARMS model was bigger than observation, and the results of intelligent grid model and ECMWF model were bigger than observation for light and middle rainfall but smaller than observation for heavy rainfall.

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